Toronto Maple Leafs Forwards: A Statistical Analysis Related to Team Production

Introduction

In evaluating the forwards for the Toronto Maple Leafs in a previous article, I discussed the ability of players to generate scoring chances for themselves. In this article, I will discuss three key statistics from Natural Stat Trick: a) the On-Ice GF/60; b) the On-Ice xGF/60; and c) SCF/ 60 and HDCF/60. The three statistics allow us to dive deeper into what type of impact various Leaf forwards have on team goal-scoring production.

Definitions

On-Ice GF/60 refers to the Goals For Per 60 Minutes for a player. It answers “How much does the team score when this player is on the ice?” This statistic captures team production and playmaking. It should come as no surprise that Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon dominate these categories every year.

On-Ice xGF/60 refers to the Expected Goals For Per 60. This statistic removes shooting luck and focuses on chance quality created when the player is on the ice. It answers: “How dangerous is the offense while the player is on the ice?”

SCF/60 refers to how many chances the team gets with the player on the ice per 60 minutes.

Source: Natural Stat Trick, December 26, 2025

Inferences

From the table above, we can infer the following:

William Nylander’s GF60 is extremely high, has strong chance quality (xGF60) and has high chance volume (SCF60). Nylander is creating more goals than expected (4.13 is far higher than his teammates), has more scoring chances than Matthews’ line, and has higher-quality chances than Matthews’ line. This suggests that Nylander is driving more dangerous playmaking sequences, creating more opportunities for teammates, and is playing in a more high-event environment. He is the classic elite play driver and playmaker.

Auston Matthews’ GF/60 is good but not elite. It reflects that he is primarily a finisher and not a primary playmaker. The offense, while he is on the ice, is also slightly less dangerous than that of Nylander. Matthews is generating almost the same number of chances as Nylander but creating slightly lower-quality chances and scoring fewer goals than expected, relative to Nylander’s line.

We can also state that more goals are scored while on the ice for John Tavaras (GF60) compared to his teammates (aside from Nylander). He also is creating more quality chances and thus more dangerous than Matthews. (The remaining Leaf players’ statistics speak for themselves.) More goals are scored with Nylander on the ice than any other Leaf forward.

Therefore, we can state strongly that when Nylander is on the ice, the Leafs have a far more dangerous offense.

Notes:

1) As a reference point, the 3 above statistics for Connor McDavid are higher than all Leaf forwards. But more striking is that Nathan McKinnon’s above statistics are far higher than McDavid’s.

2) Mitch Marner’s GCF60 is 3.64; xGF60 is 3.11; SCF60 is 31.90. Yes, the Leafs miss Marner’s impact.

Conclusion:

Individual scoring chances (as discussed in the previous article) do not tell you which player makes his teammates better. For that, the best Natural Stat Trick indicators are on‑ice GF/60, xGF/60, SCF/60, and HDCF/60 — all of which show that William Nylander, thus far, has been the Leafs most impactful player on offense.

Editor at Leafs Inquiry

December 26, 2025