Leafs’ Forwards: A Statistical Analysis of Scoring Chances

As a whole, the scoring of the Toronto Maple Leafs has not been the primary concern. In reviewing two statistics form the Natural Stat Trick site, I will compare the ISCF (Individual Scoring Chances For) and the iHDCF (the Individual High Danger Chances For) by a number of Leaf forwards.

The ISCF is the number of scoring chances that a player himself created while the iHDCF is the number of high-danger scoring chances he personally created (the most valuable chances in hockey).

Listed below are the iHDCF and ISCF for Leaf Forwards.

Source: Natural Stat Trick, December 23, 2025

It should be noted that top players usually have iHDCF scores in the 30 -50 range while having a iSCF between 80 -120.

To interpret the above, we can see that, based on his high iHDCF, Auston Matthews is a consistent threat. It shows that nearly half of his scoring chances come form the most dangerous areas of the ice – the slot, crease, the places where goals actually happen. Further, his high iHDCF indicates that he is constantly creating offense on his own. It is the profile of someone who drives from the inside and is more than a perimeter shooter. As discussed in previous article, this style of play has not resulted in generating many assists for Auston Matthews.

John Tavaras has a similar iSCF and even higher iHDCF. His game is primarily centred around tips, rebounds, and cycling support. His success is primarily a function of team-generated chances that he finishes.

William Nylander, surprisingly, has a much lower iHDCF than Matthews or Tavaras. However, though he is the better playmaker, his attacking game is primarily off the wall and through the middle with speed. He is a space creator, not a space invader. He prefers to pass into the high danger rather than drive himself into it. A better playmaker such as Nylander doesn’t necessarily create chances for themselves; rather they create chances for teammates.

The statistics for the remaining Leaf players speak for themselves. After Matthew Knies, there is a significant drop-off in iSCF and iHDCF. I did not include Easton Cowan because of a lack of games played.

For a point of reference, let’s also review the iSCF and iHCF for hockey’s two best players: Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.

Source: Natural Stat Trick, December 23, 2025

One can note that based on scoring chances, McDavid’s stats are very similar to Matthews while MacKinnon’s are marginally higher. At this point, McDavid leads the NHL with in points while MacKinnon is 2nd. Auston Matthews is far behind in the NHL scoring race, largely because he has few assists. It strongly suggests that creating scoring chances for one’s self is only a part of the picture when evaluating a player’s offensive ability. To dive deeper as to why McDavid and Mackinnon are superior to any of the Leaf forwards, we need to look at statistics that reflect a player’s ability to make his teammates more productive. We will discuss this in our upcoming article.

Editor at Leafs Inquiry

December 23, 2025